The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a momentum-based oscillator used to help determine when an investment vehicle is reaching a condition of being overbought or oversold.
Developed by Donald Lambert, this technical indicator assesses price trend direction and strength, allowing traders to determine if they want to enter or exit a trade, refrain from taking a trade, or add to an existing position. In this way, the indicator can be used to provide trade signals when it acts in a certain way.
CCI=×Mean DeviationTypical Price−MAwhere:Typical Price=∑i=1P((High+Low+Close)÷3)P=Number of periodsMA=Moving AverageMoving Average=(∑i=1PTypical Price)÷PMean Deviation=(∑i=1P∣Typical Price−MA∣)÷P
The CCI is primarily used for spotting new trends, watching for overbought and oversold levels, and spotting weakness in trends when the indicator diverges with price.
When the CCI moves from negative or near-zero territory to above , that may indicate the price is starting a new uptrend. Once this occurs, traders can watch for a pullback in price followed by a rally in both price and the CCI to signal a buying opportunity.
The same concept applies to an emerging downtrend. When the indicator goes from positive or near-zero readings to below , then a downtrend may be starting. This is a signal to get out of longs or to start watching for shorting opportunities.
Despite its name, the CCI can be used in any market and is not just for commodities.
Overbought or oversold levels are not fixed since the indicator is unbound. Therefore, traders look at past readings on the indicator to get a sense of where the price reversed. For one stock, it may tend to reverse near + and Another commodity, meanwhile, may tend to reverse near + and Zoom out on the chart to see lots of price reversal points, and the CCI readings at those times.
There are also divergences—when the price is moving in the opposite direction of the indicator. If the price is rising and the CCI is falling, this can indicate a weakness in the trend. While divergence is a poor trade signal, since it can last a long time and doesn't always result in a price reversal, it can be good for at least warning the trader that there is the possibility of a reversal. This way, they can tighten stop loss levels or hold off on taking new trades in the price trend direction.
Both of these technical indicators are oscillators, but they are calculated quite differently. One of the main differences is that the Stochastic Oscillator is bound between zero and , while the CCI is unbounded.
Due to the calculation differences, they will provide different signals at different times, such as overbought and oversold readings.
While often used to spot overbought and oversold conditions, the CCI is highly subjective in this regard. The indicator is unbound and, therefore, prior overbought and oversold levels may have little impact in the future.
The indicator is also lagging, which means at times it will provide poor signals. A rally to or to signal a new trend may come too late, as the price has had its run and is starting to correct already.
Such incidents are called whipsaws; a signal is provided by the indicator but the price doesn't follow through after that signal and money is lost on the trade. If not careful, whipsaws can occur frequently. Therefore, the indicator is best used in conjunction with price analysis and other forms of technical analysis or indicators to help confirm or reject CCI signals.
Technical indicators are heuristic or pattern-based signals produced by the price, volume, and/or open interest of a security or contract used by traders who follow technical analysis.
By analyzing historical data, technical analysts use indicators to predict future price movements. Examples of common technical indicators include the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Money Flow Index (MFI), stochastics, moving average convergence divergence (MACD), and Bollinger Bands®.
Technical analysis is a trading discipline employed to evaluate investments and identify trading opportunities by analyzing statistical trends gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume. Unlike fundamental analysts, who attempt to evaluate a security’s intrinsic value based on financial or economic data, technical analysts focus on patterns of price movements, trading signals, and various other analytical charting tools to evaluate a security’s strength or weakness.
Technical analysis can be used on any security with historical trading data. This includes stocks, futures, commodities, fixed-income, currencies, and other securities. In this tutorial, we’ll usually analyze stocks in our examples, but keep in mind that these concepts can be applied to any type of security. In fact, technical analysis is far more prevalent in commodities and forex markets, where traders focus on short-term price movements.
Technical indicators, also known as “technicals,” are focused on historical trading data, such as price, volume, and open interest, rather than the fundamentals of a business, such as earnings, revenue, or profit margins. Technical indicators are commonly used by active traders, since they’re designed to analyze short-term price movements, but long-term investors may also use technical indicators to identify entry and exit points.
There are two basic types of technical indicators:
Traders often use many different technical indicators when analyzing a security. With thousands of different options, traders must choose the indicators that work best for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. Traders may also combine technical indicators with more subjective forms of technical analysis, such as looking at chart patterns, to come up with trade ideas. Technical indicators can also be incorporated into automated trading systems, given their quantitative nature.
The following chart shows some of the most common technical indicators, including moving averages, the RSI, and the MACD.
In this example, the and day moving averages are plotted over the top of the prices to show where the current price stands relative to its historical averages. The day moving averages is higher than the day moving average in this case, which suggests that the overall trend has been positive. The RSI above the chart shows the strength of the current trend—a neutral , in this case. The MACD below the chart shows how the two moving averages have converged or diverged—slightly bearish, in this case.
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