Аналитика Форекс 2 Сентября

There is no single formula for success for trading in the financial markets. Think of the markets as being like the ocean and the trader as a surfer. Surfing requires talent, balance, patience, proper equipment, and mindfulness of your surroundings. Would you go into water that had dangerous rip tides or was shark-infested? Hopefully not.

The attitude to trading in the Forex markets is no different. By blending good analysis with effective implementation, your success rate will improve dramatically, and, like many skill sets, good trading comes from a combination of talent and hard work. Here are the four strategies to serve you well in all markets, but in this article, we will focus on the Forex markets.

Approaching Forex Trading

Before you trade, recognize the value of proper preparation. It's important to align your personal goals and temperament with relatable instruments and markets. For example, if you understand retail markets, then it makes sense to trade retail stocks rather than oil futures, about which you may know nothing. It also helps to begin by assessing the following three components:

Time Frame

The time frame indicates the type of trading that is appropriate for your temperament. Trading off a five-minute chart suggests that you are more comfortable taking a position without exposure to overnight risk. On the other hand, choosing weekly charts indicates comfort with overnight risk and a willingness to see some days go contrary to your position.

In addition, decide if you have the time and willingness to sit in front of a screen all day or if you prefer to do your research over the weekend and then make a trading decision for the week ahead based on your analysis. Remember that the opportunity to make substantial money in the Forex markets requires time. Short-term scalping, by definition, means small profits or losses. In this case, you will have to trade more frequently.

Methodology

Once you choose a time frame, find a consistent methodology. For example, some traders like to buy support and sell resistance. Others prefer buying or selling breakouts. Some like to trade using indicators, such as MACD (moving average convergence divergence) and crossovers.

Once you choose a system or methodology, test it to see if it works on a consistent basis and provides an edge. If your system is reliable more than 50% of the time, you should consider that an edge, even if it's a small one. Test a few strategies, and when you find one that delivers a consistently positive outcome, stay with it and test it with a variety of instruments and various time frames.

Market (Instrument)

You will find that certain instruments trade much more orderly than others. Erratic trading instruments make it difficult to produce a winning system. Therefore, it is necessary to test your system on multiple instruments to determine that your system's "personality" matches with the instrument being traded. For example, if you were trading the USD/JPY currency pair in the Forex market, you may find that Fibonacci support and resistance levels are more reliable.

Your Forex Trading Attitude

Behavior is an integral part of the trading process, and thus your attitude and mindset should reflect the following four attributes:

Patience

Once you know what to expect from your system, have the patience to wait for the price to reach the levels that your system indicates for either the point of entry or exit. If your system indicates an entry at a certain level but the market never reaches it, then move on to the next opportunity. There will always be another trade.

Discipline

Discipline is the ability to be patient—to sit on your hands until your system triggers an action point. Sometimes, the price action won't reach your anticipated price point. At this time, you must have the discipline to believe in your system and not to second-guess it. Discipline is also the ability to pull the trigger when your system indicates to do so. This is especially true for stop losses.

Objectivity

Objectivity or "emotional detachment" also depends on the reliability of your system or methodology. If you have a system that provides entry and exit levels that you find reliable, you don't need to become emotional or allow yourself to be influenced by the opinion of pundits. Your system should be reliable enough so that you can be confident in acting on its signals.

Realistic Expectations

Even though the market can sometimes make a much bigger move than you anticipate, being realistic means that you cannot expect to invest $ in your trading account and make $1, each trade. Although there is no such thing as a "safe" trading time frame, a short-term mindset may involve smaller risks if the trader exercises discipline in picking trades. This is also known as the trade-off between risk and reward.

Motivating Forex Trading Factors

Instruments trade differently depending on the major players and their intent. For example, hedge funds vary in strategy and are motivated differently than mutual funds. Large banks that are trading in the spot currency markets usually have a different objective than currency traders buying or selling futures contracts. If you can determine what motivates the large players, you can often align that knowledge to your advantage.

Alignment

Pick a few currencies, stocks, or commodities, and chart them all in a variety of time frames. Then apply your particular methodology to all of them and see which time frame and instrument align to your system. This is how you discover alignment within your system. Repeat this exercise regularly to adapt to changing market conditions.

Implementing a Forex Trading Strategy

There is no such thing as only profitable trades, just as no system is a % sure thing. Even a profitable system, say with a 65% profit-to-loss ratio, still, has 35% losing trades. Therefore, the art of profitability is in the management and execution of the trade.

Risk Control

In the end, successful trading is all about risk control. Try to get your trade in the correct direction right out of the gate. Evaluate your trading system, make adjustments, and try again. Often, it is on the second or third attempt that your trade will move in the right direction. This practice requires patience and discipline to achieve success.

The Bottom Line

Trading is nuanced and requires as much art as science to execute successfully, which means that there is only a profit-making trade or a loss-making trade. Warren Buffet said that there are two rules in trading: Rule 1: Never lose money. Rule 2: Remember Rule 1. Stick a note on your computer that will remind you to take small losses often and quickly rather than wait for the big losses.

JERUSALEM, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The Bank of Israel said on Monday it will sell up to $30 billion of foreign currency in the open market, the central bank's first ever sale of foreign exchange, to maintain stability during the war with Palestinian militants in Gaza.

The shekel fell % versus the dollar to - its weakest level since February - after the announcement and matching its biggest one-day move since March

"We are in an unprecedented security situation, and our estimate was that the market could get to a situation of divergence without the announcement of our intervention," Golan Benita, head of the Bank of Israel's markets department, told a news conference.

The shekel had already weakened by 10% so far in to a rate of per dollar on political turmoil, and on the heels of what is expected to be a long war with Hamas in Gaza the shekel was set to depreciate sharply.

Benita said that prior to the opening of trade, the exchange rate jumped to reach as much as shekels per dollar overnight in Asia.

"Therefore it was important for us before the opening of trade in the local market to increase the certainty in the market or decrease the uncertainty in the market, in order to moderate as much as possible incidents of overreactions and ensure the markets' regular activity," he said.

Benita said there were no plans at this time to sell more than $30 billion of forex and that the high level of reserves allowed the central bank room to support the economy in times of emergency.

"At the current juncture, the central bank’s priority is only to ensure a normal functioning of markets," Murat Toprak, CEEMEA FX strategist at HSBC, said.

The central bank also said it would provide liquidity through swap mechanisms in the market of up to $15 billion.

"The Bank of Israel will continue monitoring developments, tracking all the markets, and acting with the tools available to it as necessary," it said.

Citi economists said in a report: "Despite our expectation of a weaker shekel in the medium term - softer tech equity flows, a more complex political background and more two-sided risks to monetary policy - we do not expect further sustained bouts of shekel weakness."

JPMorgan said it expected the central bank to plan for "protracted pressure" on the currency.

"Given potential passthrough to inflation as well as sentiment impact, we think levels near may see more substantive FX selling by BoI," said JPMorgan's Anezka Christovova.

STOCKS AND BONDS

Israeli stock and bond prices slid 7% on Sunday, a day after Hamas gunmen burst across the fence from Gaza in the deadliest incursion into Israeli territory since Egypt and Syria's attacks in the Yom Kippur war 50 years ago.

On Monday, key Tel Aviv share indexes (.TA35), opens new tab, (.TA), opens new tab rebounded and closed %-1% higher in strong turnover of billion shekels ($ million), while government bond prices were mixed.

Israel's dollar-denominated government bonds also fell sharply in European trading as investors got their first chance to react to the unprecedented attack.

Most bonds were set to finish between 1 and cents lower although the maturing year bond was down over 5 cents at just 65 cents in what was close to being its biggest ever daily drop.

Israel has amassed forex reserves of more than $ billion, nearly 40% of GDP and much of it from buying forex since to try to keep the shekel from strengthening too much and harm exporters as foreign inflows to the country's tech sector soared.

"Israel has one of the best positions in emerging markets," HSBC's Murat Toprak said. "Reserves are sizeable and comfortable by any metric."

The last time the bank intervened was in January

Last month, Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron told Reuters that despite the sharply weaker shekel that has helped to push up inflation, there was no need to intervene since there were no market failures.

Israel sold 2 billion shekels ($ million) of bonds locally on Monday in very strong demand, saying the ability to raise debt and finance the government's activities, even in times of emergency, is evidence of market confidence in Israel.

($1 = shekels)

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab