Йена На Форексе

While EUR/JPY&#;s correction from extended to , it drew some support from and near term rising channel and rebounded. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of will indicate that rise from is ready to resume, and turn bias back to the upside for first. Nevertheless, break of will now suggest that the rise from has completed and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from medium term top are seen as a correction to rise from only. As long as resistance turned support holds ( high), larger up trend from ( low) is expected to resume through at a later stage.

In the long term picture, rise from ( low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from ( low). Next target is % projection of to from at which is close to ( high). This will remain the favored case as long as resistance turned support holds.

The USD/JPY pair is counted among the most popular Forex currency pairs because of its relative liquidity and typically low spreads. When viewing the US dollar to the Japanese yen chart it is important to realize that the Japanese yen is heavily dependent on exports in particular and on the global financial market in general. For this reason, a volatile market may make it difficult to trade JPY-based pairs successfully. Despite this, the Japanese yen remains an extremely acknowledged Forex pair for carry trades, which has bolstered the popularity of the USD/JPY as a pair.

Dollar/Yen

The US dollar is the most heavily traded currency in the Forex markets, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of nearly $14 trillion, making the United States the largest national economy in the world. The yen is now the fourth most popular currency. With this in mind, the US dollar to the Japanese yen FX trading analysis can yield excellent opportunities for profits for both new and experienced traders who understand market trends and know how to leverage each currency to their advantage. Reviewing the USD/JPY chart can yield some interesting data to currency traders.

The Yen has become one of the most traded currencies in the world and is used in carry trades resulting in its low interest rates. Carry trades is a strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates, which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage used.

USD/JPY Rate

The Bank of Japan has expanded their purchase of Yen of late, in hopes of reversing Japan’s deflation tide to inflation. By doubling this money supply, The BOJ is devaluing the Yen and boosting exports while increasing prices of imports, especially for commodities, at the same time. This will most definitely affect the USD/JPY price.

HONG KONG, Dec 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Foreign exchange investors have been enjoying a quiet, rich life. Predictable monetary policies have made it easy to borrow yen and invest it in U.S. dollar assets and those of other countries where interest rates are high. But as central banks start moving in the opposite direction, those “carry trades” will become a lot riskier.

In recent decades, Japan has been a graveyard for investors looking for domestic returns. Notably those who bet against its government bonds in a trade so bad it became known as the “widow maker”. Foreign exchange traders beg to differ: the carry trade has been a sure-fire money maker this year. That’s due to the huge gap in short-term interest rates between Japan, where they are %, and other countries.

The most popular carry trade with yen has been into U.S. dollars . That’s because the Federal Reserve has pushed the benchmark federal funds rate to % to % – the highest level in 17 years – to slay inflation. More daring investors have placed their borrowed yen in emerging markets such as Colombia, where rates are %, Mexico, where borrowing costs are %, or Brazil, where the overnight rate is %.

These bets can be risky. Big spikes in either of the currencies involved can wipe away returns or, worse, force investors into early repayment of the money they borrowed. But the foreign exchange waters have been unusually calm. A Deutsche Bank index of options’ volatility – a gauge of markets’ choppiness – touched the lowest point since February last week.

The key reason is that the inflationary spike that followed the pandemic – and worsened after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in – made for very predictable monetary policy: all major central banks raised rates. Japan is musing on moving in that direction but remains an outlier, sticking to ultra-low rates to stimulate its stagnant economy.

That’s about to change. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates at least twice next year, according to derivatives pricing collected by LSEG. Those expectations have already sent an index that tracks the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies to its lowest level in more than two months on November As for Japan, 43% of the fund managers polled by Bank of America in November think the central bank will increase rates in the first quarter of

As markets become choppier, new waves of volatility will drown out carry trades.

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CONTEXT NEWS

The U.S. dollar touched the lowest level against other major currencies in nearly three months on Nov. 20 on expectations the Federal Reserve won’t hike rates further.

The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies, fell to on Nov. 20, the lowest level since the end of August.

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

USDJPY Live Chart

The USD vs JPY Live Chart is a graph that shows you the price of the US Dollar, vs the Japanese Yen, over a certain amount of time, as well as the USDJPY "live," or current price right now.

USDJPY Live Rate

1 United States Dollar equals Japanese Yen

USDJPY Candlestick Chart

People Asking About the U.S. Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY) What is USDJPY?

USD/JPY is the currency pair that shows the value of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The left side of the pair is called base currency, in this case the USD, and the right side is called the quote currency, in this case the Japanese Yen. This exchange rate tells you how many Yen you need to buy one US Dollar. For example, if the USD/JPY pair is trading at , it means that you need Yen to buy one US Dollar. So, when the pair is going up in price, the US Dollar is said to be appreciating or getting stronger and the Japanese Yen is depreciating or getting weaker, and vice versa when the pair is going down in price.

What is a USDJPY Candlestick chart?

There are different ways you can display the exchange rate price movements on a chart. The most common ways include a line chart or a bar chart, but the most popular and used one is the candlestick chart. The candlestick chart shows you instantly and in real time where the price has opened, closed and how much up and down it went on any given timeframe.

Let’s say you want to check USD/JPY price on a daily timeframe. You go to your charting software, select the timeframe and select the candlestick chart (if it’s not set by default). This is what you would see on eunic-brussels.eu

Is USDJPY a good pair to trade?

USD/JPY can be a very good pair to trade when you have a monetary policy divergence between the two central banks backing the currencies, the Federal Reserve for the USD and the Bank of Japan for the JPY. For example, if the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and the Bank of Japan is keeping them at zero, then you have a policy divergence and, in such cases, you would see the relative currency pair appreciate or going up. Another good thing is that you would be earning interest because you would be buying a currency with a high interest rate and selling one with low interest rate, collecting the differential. This is the so-called carry trade.

When can I trade USD JPY?

The best times to trade a forex pair is when you have the corresponding central banks going in the opposite directions with their monetary policies creating a divergence. The forex market is mainly driven by these interest rates differentials and risk sentiment.

So, when you have a central bank raising interest rates and/or tightening monetary policy you would generally see its currency getting stronger. Then you just need to find a currency with a central bank that is cutting interest rates or keeping them low, find the relative pair for the two currencies and buying the strong currency against the weak one.

So, when you have the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the US and the Bank of Japan cutting them or keeping them low, you can go long USD/JPY because the interest rate differential will be in favor of the USD.

But when the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, you would see USD/JPY going down, so you can go short, because the rates differential will start to decrease and traders who were taking advantage of the carry trade going long USD/JPY will be taking profits selling USD/JPY, thus increasing the momentum to the downside.

Why is USD JPY important?

USD/JPY is an especially important exchange rate for Japan. The Japanese economy is export oriented and the value of the Yen can impact different things from the profits companies earn to the inflation rate in the overall economy. The Japanese prefer a weak Yen because it increases exports. If the USD is getting stronger against the Yen, then it increases the purchasing power of US consumers and businesses who can buy more Japanese goods and services.

On the other hand, a strong Yen decreases the purchasing power of the US people who may want to buy less Japanese stuff and therefore decreases Japanese exports. The USD/JPY exchange rate is so important for Japan that it’s known for doing interventions in the Forex market to weaken the Yen. For example, Japan with other G7 nations intervened in after the massive earthquake in Japan to stem Yen strength as the currency appreciated a lot in a short time due to a flight to safety.

Will USDJPY go up or down?

In the current context of massive monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, USD/JPY surged to levels not seen since But what are the reasons for JPY to appreciate when inflation starts to clearly ease, and the global growth outlook worsens even more? I think the Fed will keep on tightening even during the recession and that will weigh on growth.

This will lower inflation and maybe even lead to some deflation. In turn the Fed will respond with rate cuts and that expectation will depress US yields, making the differential with the Japanese yields to converge and favouring the Yen. The Yen safe haven status coupled with the unwinding of the carry trades we saw up to now on policy divergence, will lead to more and more appreciation.

Should I trade USDJPY or JPYUSD? Does it matter?

There’s no difference between USD/JPY and JPY/USD in terms of currency strength. The only difference lays in how the chart will be displayed and therefore the exchange rate you will see. In the chart below you can see that the two pairs have a perfect inverse correlation because you just swapped the positions of the currencies in the pair.

On the left axis you can see that the exchange rate for JPY/USD is , which means that you need just US Dollars to buy one Yen. On the right axis you can see the exchange rate for USD/JPY showing , which tells you that you need Yen to buy one US Dollar. So, in the end it doesn’t matter at all which currency pair you trade, but if you want to buy the US Dollar, then you will need to go short JPY/USD and long USD/JPY and vice versa if you want to buy Yen.

Why is USDJPY strong?

USD/JPY has been on a strong uptrend for more than a year now. The reason is quite simple: the stark monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Everything began first with the Democrats winning the majority in the Senate after the elections in Georgia back in January resulted in a split with a tiebreaking vote from Kamala Harris.

From there the market expected more fiscal stimulus from the Democrats and coupled with supply chain issues and the already huge monetary stimulus by the Fed, it led the market to start worrying about inflation and an earlier Fed pivot.

This Fed pivot came in June as such a hawkish meeting caught the market off-guard and gave the US Dollar the ultimate tailwind to start its massive appreciation.

In this divergence became even stronger when the Fed started to respond aggressively to combat inflation while the BoJ kept on easing its monetary policy by continuing its quantitative easing program and keeping interest rates at zero. The BoJ is the only dovish central bank in the major currency space as of now.

How to Trade USDJPY?

The best way to trade currencies in general is to have a fundamental idea for direction, which is generally based on macroeconomics such as central bank’s monetary policy, growth, inflation, and so on, and technical analysis for risk management.

For example, let’s say that you have the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the BoJ telling you that fundamentally the pair should go up. So, you will want to mainly take long positions. You also need to manage your risk though. Where can you enter to have a small risk exposure but a bigger profit potential? You can use technical analysis.

So, you open the USD/JPY chart and use technical concepts like support and resistance, trendlines, indicators and so on to decide where to open a trade. For example, in the chart below you can see how you could use the upward trendline on the 1-hour timeframe as support to lean against.

You could have placed an order when the price touched the trendline and a stop loss below the trendline and the recent low to protect your position so if the price broke down you would lose just a little. The possible gain though could have been much bigger as you would have pocketed six times more than you risked in that trade.

Where can I trade USDJPY?

You can trade USD/JPY or any other Forex pair with a broker. Always choose a good, reputable, and regulated broker to avoid unnecessary problems. When you open a trading account with a broker, you will have to deposit money to be able to trade and then use the broker trading platform to execute your trades. Most retail brokers let you trade on MetaTrader 4 or MetaTrader 5, which are two of the most famous and popular trading platforms among retail traders.

Most retail brokers offer CFD trading for Forex, although you can also trade USD/JPY via other derivatives like futures or options that are more expensive than CFDs, or you can buy ETFs like ProShares UltraShort Yen with ticker “YCS” (long USD/JPY) or ProShares Ultra Yen with ticker “YCL” (short USD/JPY).

USDJPY Analysis

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: As of now the stark monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is still intact. This keeps on supporting the USD/JPY pair especially considering recent comments both from the Fed, which favors a tighter for longer monetary policy even if the economy goes into recession and the BoJ, which keeps on reiterating its commitment to maintain monetary policy loose for the foreseeable future.

The things to look at for a change in this trend is inflation in the US. The Fed is “all in” in fighting inflation and wants it to return to its 2% target even if it means a recession. Given their strong will, it’s hard to fight the Fed as it may overtighten policy and cause even more appreciation in the USD/JPY pair if the BoJ continues to shy away from tightening monetary conditions.

The market though is forward-looking in nature and generally prices changes in fundamentals 6/12 months ahead. So, what may trigger downsides in the pair? Economic indicators like CPI and others that include components that show inflationary pressures like the ISM PMIs can act as catalysts that can send the pair lower if they miss on expectations, and the bigger the miss the bigger the reaction that will be seen. Given that we may be at peak inflation and probably near the peak hawkishness for the Fed, the risk management becomes paramount when trying to trade the pair.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: On the monthly timeframe, we can see the most clear and strongest levels of support and resistance. The nearest one is found in the price area. The uptrend should find a great resistance there especially if inflation reports start to miss and the Fed becomes less hawkish.

On the daily timeframe, we can see how the price is contained in what could become a broadening wedge. This chart pattern is divergent in nature, meaning that the price is losing momentum and can reverse the trend. We may see the price coming to the upper trendline and the monthly resistance zone and finally start a long-term downtrend.

On the 4-hour timeframe, we have the price respecting the upward trendline. A break of the recent swing high at to the upside may increase the momentum to try reaching the price area. If the price breaks the trendline to the downside, it may signal a loss of momentum and the price pulling back to the lows near the area or even before either resuming the upward trend or breaking the strong support in the area.

USDJPY Correlation

The USD and JPY are both considered safe haven currencies. Safe haven assets see inflows in times of stress or risk aversion in the market. The JPY is generally the best safe haven currency and the one seeing the most inflows in bad times. In fact, what drives the USD/JPY pair the most is monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the BoJ and risk sentiment.

In normal times, when there’s risk on sentiment you can see the USD/JPY appreciating all else being equal, while during risk off flows you can see the JPY gaining strength. The other driver as previously mentioned is monetary policy divergence. This divergence increases or decreases the so-called yield spread, which is the differential between US Government Bonds returns versus the Japanese ones. Investors generally want the highest profits for the least amount of risk.

So, when the US yields are rising investors prefer to buy US assets which means selling Yen and buy US Dollars and vice versa when yields in US fall or the Japanese ones rise. In the chart below you can see how the USD/JPY pair is correlated with the spread between the US and JP bond yields.

Moreover, you can see how the yield spread is a leading indicator for the FX pair as the divergence between the yield spread and the FX pair was getting wider between August and December , but then finally the FX pair caught up with the yield spread once the catalyst from the January elections in Georgia gave the market a wake-up call.

The foreign exchange market is vast, complicated and ruthlessly competitive. Major banks, trading houses, and funds dominate the market and quickly incorporate new information into the prices.

Therefore, forex trading is not a market for the unprepared. To effectively trade forex on a fundamental basis, traders must be knowledgeable when it comes to the major foreign currencies. This knowledge should include not only the current economic stats for a country but also the underpinnings of the respective economies and the special factors that can influence the currencies, such as commodity movement or interest rate changes.

Introduction to the Yen

Just seven currencies account for 83% of the forex market, and the Japanese yen is one of the largest currencies, in terms of international trade and forex trading. Japan is one of the largest economies in the world, with one of the highest GDP among nations; it is also one of the largest exporters, in dollar terms.

All of the major currencies in the forex market have central banks behind them. In the case of the Japanese yen, it is the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Like most developed-country central banks, the Bank of Japan has a mandate to act in a fashion that encourages growth and minimizes inflation.

In the case of Japan, however, deflation has been a persistent threat for many years, and the BOJ has pursued a policy of very low rates in the hopes of stimulating demand and economic growth; at various points in the s, real rates in Japan were actually slightly negative.

The Economy Behind the Yen

The Japanese economy has some particular and peculiar attributes that yen traders need to understand. Firstly, despite its size, Japan has been notably lacking in growth since the collapse of its equity and real estatebubbles in Writers often refer to the ensuing years as a "lost decade" in Japan because of this reason. Since then, growth rarely exceeded 2% in Japan between and , and went down 29% from to  Japan is also notable for inflation, or rather its almost near-absence of it; Japan has actually experienced deflation for much of the last 20 years.

Second, Japan is also among the oldest major economies in the world and has one of the lowest fertility rates. That suggests an increasingly aging workforce with fewer and fewer younger workers to support the economy through taxation and consumption. Because of this Japan, once quite closed to immigration, recently began opening its borders to foreign workers to address labor shortages.

Lastly, Japan is also an advanced economy with a well-educated workforce. Although industries like shipbuilding have somewhat migrated to countries like South Korea and China, Japan is still a leading manufacturer of consumer electronics, autos, and technological components. This has left Japan with significant exposure to the global economy.

Drivers of the Yen

There are several theories that attempt to explain foreign exchange rates. Purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, the Fisher effect and balance of payments models all offer explanations of the "right" exchange rate, based on factors like relative interest rates, price levels and so forth. In practice, these models do not work especially well in the real market—real market exchange rates are determined by supply and demand, which includes a variety of market psychology factors.

Major economic data includes the release of GDP, retail sales, industrial production, inflation, and trade balances. Investors should also take note of the information on employment, interest rates (including scheduled meetings of the central bank) and the daily news flow; natural disasters, elections, and new government policies can all have significant impacts on exchange rates.

In the case of Japan and yen traders, the Tankan survey is particularly noteworthy. Many countries report information on business confidence, and the Tankan is a quarterly report published by the Bank of Japan. The Tankan is seen as a very important report, and often moves trading in Japanese stock and currency.

In many respects, BoJ policy drives carry trades across the world. Carry trading refers to borrowing money in a low-interest-rate environment and then investing that money in higher-yielding assets from other countries. With a stated policy of near-zero interest rates, Japan has long been a major source of capital for that trade. That also means, though, that talk of higher rates in Japan can send ripples throughout the currency markets.

Unique Factors for the Japanese Yen

While the BoJ has maintained low rates since Japan's property bubble collapsed, the bank has also been involved in currency intervention—selling the yen to help keep Japanese exports more competitive. This intervention has carried political consequences in the past, however, so the bank is relatively hesitant to intervene in the forex markets.

Japan's trade balance also impacts BoJ policy and forex rates. Japan has historically had large trade surpluses, but very large public debt and an aging population. A large percentage of that debt is held domestically, though, and Japanese investors seem willing to accept low rates of returns.

While Japan has very high debt levels, traders tend to be more comfortable with Japan's debt balance. Moreover, traders often balance the high debt level of Japan with its usual high trade surplus, though the devaluation of the dollar and the "safe haven" status of the yen have led the Japanese coin to become so strong that it threatens the very trade surpluses that makes it attractive. Indeed in the last decade they have uncharacteristically run an increasing amount of deficits.