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Global and Regional Outlooks

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  Global

  Global growth is expected to slow to percent in , the third consecutive year of deceleration. Tight monetary policies, restrictive credit conditions, and anemic global trade and investment are expected to weigh on growth. The recent conflict in the Middle East has heightened geopolitical risks. Global cooperation is critical to address the issues of high debt, climate change, trade fragmentation, and food insecurity and conflict. Across emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), limited fiscal space highlights the need to improve spending efficiency. Decisive policy action is also needed to encourage a sustained acceleration in investment.

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  East Asia and Pacific

  Growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region is projected to slow to percent in and to percent in , from an estimated percent in , mostly owing to an anticipated deceleration in economic activity in China. Amid protracted property sector weakness, growth in China is expected to decline from percent in to percent in and percent in In the rest of the region, growth is projected to edge up from an estimated percent in to percent in and , underpinned by solid domestic demand. Risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside and include a more severe downturn in China, with adverse spillovers to the broader region, and heightened geopolitical tensions—including those from the conflict in the Middle East—which could spur higher energy and food prices and inflation. Weaker-than expected global demand and trade, as well as climate-change-related extreme weather events, pose further downside risks.

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  Europe and Central Asia

  Growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to moderate to percent this year, and then firm to percent in , supported by strengthening domestic demand and a gradual recovery in the euro area. In the near term, persistently high inflation will prevent a rapid easing of monetary policy in most economies and weigh on private consumption. Projected fiscal consolidation further dampens the outlook. Downside risks continue to predominate. An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could increase energy prices, tighten financial conditions, and negatively affect confidence. Geopolitical risks in the region, including an escalation of the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, are elevated and could materialize. Higher-than-anticipated inflation or a weaker-than-expected recovery in the euro area would also negatively affect regional activity.

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  Latin America and the Caribbean

  Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is forecast to edge up from percent last year to percent in and then to percent in The drag on economic activity from earlier monetary policy tightening is expected to diminish throughout Additionally, the expected further easing in policy rates amid moderating inflation is set to bolster growth in Though commodity prices fell last year, they remain at levels that still support economic activity. Improved prospects among major trading partners will also contribute to growth. Most large regional economies are expected to expand at about their potential rate. Risks to the forecast are tilted to the downside. The conflict in the Middle East could result in higher energy prices, which could alter expected monetary policy paths. In addition, tighter global financial conditions could weigh on private demand and accelerate fiscal consolidation in the region. Extreme El Niño weather events related to climate change pose another downside risk.

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  Middle East and North Africa

  The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has heightened uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa (MNA) region. Assuming the conflict does not escalate, growth in the region is forecast to reach percent in and —which is stronger than previously envisioned—as oil-exporting economies benefit from the unwinding of oil production cuts. In contrast, the outlook for oil-importing economies has deteriorated on account of weakening domestic conditions, including persistently high inflation. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Owing to the possibility of escalation in the conflict, potential benefits to oil exporters from higher oil prices, resulting from disruptions in commodity markets, would likely be more than offset by weakened regional activity. Other downside risks include climate-change-related weather shocks and adverse spillovers from further monetary policy tightening in advanced economies and tighter financial conditions.

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  South Asia

  Growth in South Asia (SAR) is expected to edge marginally lower from an estimated percent last year to percent in —still the fastest pace among all emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) regions—and then firm to percent in Growth in India is projected to remain strong, largely driven by robust investment and services. In other economies, the adverse effects of persistently high inflation and monetary and fiscal policy tightening, as well as policy uncertainty, will weigh on growth. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with the most pressing concerns being higher energy and food prices caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and adverse spillovers from elevated policy rates in advanced economies. Risks of financial and fiscal stress, extreme weather events, slowing activity in China, and election-related uncertainty in some countries pose further downside risks for the region.

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  Sub-Saharan Africa

  Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to rebound to percent in and percent in as country-specific factors that have temporarily weighed on growth, including reduced fiscal support and metal-exporting economies’ adjusting to lower prices, gradually ease. Nevertheless, elevated costs of living continue to limit consumption growth, and political instability has increased in parts of the region. High debt burdens and interest rates have narrowed fiscal space and heightened financing needs. Despite the projected pickup in growth, increases in per capita incomes will remain inadequate to enable the region’s economies make significant progress in reducing extreme poverty. Risks to the baseline growth forecast remain tilted to the downside. 0ey include a further rise in global or regional instability, such as the possible escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which could drive up global energy and food prices; a sharper-than-expected global economic slowdown; increased frequency and intensity of adverse weather events; and increased defaults if attempts to reduce elevated public debt burdens were to fail. Materialization of these risks would also exacerbate poverty and limit the ability of many countries to cope with climate change.

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