Индикаторов Форекс Macd Divergence

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is an oscillator that combines two exponential moving averages (EMA)—the period and the period—to indicate the momentum of a bullish or bearish trend. MACD can be used to signal opportunities to enter and exit positions.

It is one of the most popular technical indicators in trading and is appreciated by traders worldwide for its simplicity and flexibility.

Read on to learn about the MACD and some of the MACD strategies used by traders.

MACD: An Overview

The concept behind the MACD is straightforward. It calculates the difference between a security's day and day exponential moving averages (EMA). Each moving average uses the closing price of its period ( and day) to calculate its moving average value.

On the MACD chart, a nine-period EMA of the MACD itself is also plotted. This line is called the signal line. It acts as a trigger for buy and sell decisions when the MACD crosses over it. The MACD is considered the faster line because the points plotted move more than the signal line, which is regarded as the slower line.

MACD Histogram

The MACD histogram is a visual representation of the difference between the MACD and its nine-day EMA—not highs and lows. The histogram is positive when the MACD is above its nine-day EMA and negative when the MACD is below its nine-day EMA. The point on the histogram where momentum is zero is the zero line.

If prices change rapidly, the histogram bars grow longer as the speed of the price movement—its momentum—accelerates and shrinks as price movement decelerates.

Trading Divergence

Divergence refers to a situation where factors move away from or are independent of others. With the MACD, it is a situation where price action and momentum are not acting together.

For instance, divergence can indicate a period where the price makes successively lower highs, but the MACD histogram shows a succession of higher lows. In this case, the highs are moving lower, and price momentum is slowing, foreshadowing a decline that eventually follows.

By averaging up their short, the trader eventually earns a handsome profit, as the price makes a sustained reversal after the final point of divergence.

Types of MACD Strategies

Histogram

The MACD histogram can be a useful tool for some traders. While we've explained a little bit above about how to read it, here's how it works. It plots out the difference between the fast MACD line and the signal line. Traders can use the MACD histogram as a momentum indicator to jump ahead of changes in market sentiment.

There are three different elements involved with the histogram, which is mapped out around a baseline:

• The MACD line (produced by subtracting a long-term EMA from a shorter-term EMA)
• The signal line (produced by subtracting the two EMAs and creating a nine-day moving average)
• The histogram (produced by subtracting the MACD line from the signal line)

Keep in mind, though, that the MACD histogram has its faults (see the "Drawbacks" section below). Many traders often use other tools and techniques to determine and make their moves based on market sentiment, such as the trading volume of a given security.

Crossover Strategy

A crossover occurs when the signal and MACD line cross each other. The MACD generates a bullish signal when it moves above its own nine-day EMA and triggers a sell signal (bearish) when it moves below its nine-day EMA.

Zero-Cross Strategy

When the MACD crosses from below to above the zero line, it is considered a bullish signal. Traders generally take long positions when this occurs. If it crosses from above to below the zero line, it is considered a bearish signal by traders. Traders then enter short positions to take advantage of falling prices and increasing downward momentum.

In both cases, the longer the histogram bars, the stronger the signal. When there is a strong signal, it is more likely—but not guaranteed—that the price will continue in the trending direction.

Money Flow Index

The money flow index allows traders to use price and trading volume to identify and determine when assets are overbought or oversold in the market. This oscillator moves between 0 and where readings below 20 are oversold and 80 are considered overbought.

One of the drawbacks of this strategy, though, is that it tends to produce fewer signals. That's because the readings it produces are extreme due to the fact that they are focused on spurts in volume and prices.

Relative Vigor Index (RVI)

The relative vigor index (RVI) is a commonly used momentum indicator in technical analysis. It measures how strong a trend is by comparing the trading range of a certain security with its closing price. The comparison is made by using a simple moving average (SMA) to smooth the results out.

Traders generally believe that the value of the RVI increases as a bullish trend continues to gain momentum. That's because, in this case, an asset's closing price tends to fall at the higher end of the range. The opening price, on the other hand, stays further down on the lower end of the range.

MACD With RSI and SMA

Traders may often use the MACD and relative strength index (RSI) indicator strategy. This allows them to use both the RSI and the SMA to their advantage. But what are they?

• The RSI allows traders to measure how strong a trend is while being able to pinpoint different points of reversal along that trendline. This is mapped along a baseline of 14 periods over two different levels: an oversold and an overbought one. Where the levels are set depends entirely on the trader and their strategies. Some may choose conservative levels of 20 and
• The SMA calculates the average range of prices by the number of periods in that range, usually with closing prices. This indicator allows traders to assess whether they believe a trend will continue or reverse.

Combining these three strategies together allows traders to:

• Project future price changes using the RSI
• See how strong a trend is and where it's headed using the MACD
• Use the SMA as a lagging trend-following indicator

Drawbacks of MACD

Like any oscillator or indicator, the MACD has drawbacks and risks.

• One of the most significant risks is that a reversal signal can be a false indicator. For instance, the zero-cross image above has a point where the MACD crosses from below and back again in one trading session. If a trader entered a long position when the MACD crossed from below, they would be left with a losing stock if prices continued to fall.
• MACD does not function well in sideways markets. If prices generally move to the side when they stay within a range between support and resistance. MACD tends to drift toward the zero line because there is no up or down trend—where the moving average works best.
• Additionally, the MACD zero-cross is a lagging indicator because the price is generally above the previous low before the MACD crosses the line from below. This can cause you to enter a long position later than you might have been able to.

Example of a MACD Trading Strategy

We'll use our zero-cross image for a MACD trading example. As trading proceeds, you observe the MACD initially crossed the zero line from below, then crossed again from above. A trader might notice the histogram bars moving down with the MACD, indicating a possible reversal and opportunity for a short trade.

When the line crossed from above, the trader could take a short position and net a profit when the prices began to climb again.

The zero-cross strategy could be used again to take a long position when the MACD crosses the zero line from below. At the point circled in our image, prices have been rising and momentum is up. The trader could take a long position at this point.

The Bottom Line

MACD is one of the most-used oscillators because it has been proven to be a reliable method for identifying trend reversals and momentum. There are various strategies for trading MACD, including those described above. Try each out to find the one that works best for you and your trading plan.

What Is Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)?

Moving average convergence/divergence (MACD, or MAC-D) is a trend-followingmomentum indicator that shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of a security’s price. The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the period EMA from the period EMA.

The result of that calculation is the MACD line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD line is called the signal line, which is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy or sell signals. Traders may buy the security when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and sell—or short—the security when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. MACD indicators can be interpreted in several ways, but the more common methods are crossovers, divergences, and rapid rises/falls.

MACD Formula

MACD=Period EMA − Period EMA

MACD is calculated by subtracting the long-term EMA (26 periods) from the short-term EMA (12 periods). An EMA is a type of moving average (MA) that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points.

The exponential moving average is also referred to as the exponentially weighted moving average. An exponentially weighted moving average reacts more significantly to recent price changes than a simple moving average (SMA), which applies an equal weight to all observations in the period.

Learning from MACD

MACD has a positive value (shown as the blue line in the lower chart) whenever the period EMA (indicated by the red line on the price chart) is above the period EMA (the blue line in the price chart) and a negative value when the period EMA is below the period EMA. The level of distance that MACD is above or below its baseline indicates that the distance between the two EMAs is growing.

In the following chart, you can see how the two EMAs applied to the price chart correspond to the MACD (blue) crossing above or below its baseline (red dashed) in the indicator below the price chart.

MACD is often displayed with a histogram (see the chart below) that graphs the distance between MACD and its signal line. If MACD is above the signal line, the histogram will be above the MACD’s baseline, or zero line. If MACD is below its signal line, the histogram will be below the MACD’s baseline. Traders use the MACD’s histogram to identify when bullish or bearish momentum is high—and possibly for overbought/oversold signals.

MACD vs. Relative Strength

The relative strength index (RSI) aims to signal whether a market is considered to be overbought or oversold in relation to recent price levels. The RSI is an oscillator that calculates average price gains and losses over a given period of time. The default time period is 14 periods with values bounded from 0 to A reading above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while a reading below 30 is considered oversold, with both potentially signaling a top is forming, or vice versa (a bottom is forming).

The MACD lines, however, do not have concrete overbought/oversold levels like the RSI and other oscillator studies. Rather, they function on a relative basis. That’s to say an investor or trader should focus on the level and direction of the MACD/signal lines compared with preceding price movements in the security at hand, as shown below.

MACD measures the relationship between two EMAs, while the RSI measures price change in relation to recent price highs and lows. These two indicators are often used together to give analysts a more complete technical picture of a market.

These indicators both measure momentum in a market, but because they measure different factors, they sometimes give contrary indications. For example, the RSI may show a reading above 70 (overbought) for a sustained period of time, indicating a market is overextended to the buy side in relation to recent prices, while the MACD indicates that the market is still increasing in buying momentum. Either indicator may signal an upcoming trend change by showing divergence from price (price continues higher while the indicator turns lower, or vice versa).

Limitations of MACD and Confirmation

One of the main problems with a moving average divergence is that it can often signal a possible reversal, but then no actual reversal happens—it produces a false positive. The other problem is that divergence doesn’t forecast all reversals. In other words, it predicts too many reversals that don’t occur and not enough real price reversals.

This suggests confirmation should be sought by trend-following indicators, such as the Directional Movement Index (DMI) system and its key component, the Average Directional Index (ADX). The ADX is designed to indicate whether a trend is in place or not, with a reading above 25 indicating a trend is in place (in either direction) and a reading below 20 suggesting no trend is in place.

Investors following MACD crossovers and divergences should double-check with the ADX before making a trade on an MACD signal. For example, while MACD may be showing a bearish divergence, a check of the ADX may tell you that a trend higher is in place—in which case you would avoid the bearish MACD trade signal and wait to see how the market develops over the next few days.

On the other hand, if MACD is showing a bearish crossover and the ADX is in non-trending territory (<25) and has likely shown a peak and reversal on its own, you could have good cause to take the bearish trade.

Furthermore, false positive divergences often occur when the price of an asset moves sideways in a consolidation, such as in a range or triangle pattern following a trend. A slowdown in the momentum—sideways movement or slow trending movement—of the price will cause MACD to pull away from its prior extremes and gravitate toward the zero lines even in the absence of a true reversal. Again, double-check the ADX to determine whether a trend is in place and also look at what price is doing before acting.

Example of MACD Crossovers

As shown on the following chart, when MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal indicating that it may be time to sell. Conversely, when MACD rises above the signal line, the signal is bullish, suggesting that the price of the asset might experience upward momentum. Some traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before entering a position to reduce the chances of being faked out and entering a position too early.

Crossovers are more reliable when they conform to the prevailing trend. If MACD crosses above its signal line after a brief downside correction within a longer-term uptrend, it qualifies as a bullish confirmation and the likely continuation of the uptrend.

If MACD crosses below its signal line following a brief move higher within a longer-term downtrend, traders would consider that a bearish confirmation.

Example of Divergence

When MACD forms highs or lows that that exceed the corresponding highs and lows on the price, it is called a divergence. A bullish divergence appears when MACD forms two rising lows that correspond with two falling lows on the price. This is a valid bullish signal when the long-term trend is still positive.

Some traders will look for bullish divergences even when the long-term trend is negative because they can signal a change in the trend, although this technique is less reliable.

When MACD forms a series of two falling highs that correspond with two rising highs on the price, a bearish divergence has been formed. A bearish divergence that appears during a long-term bearish trend is considered confirmation that the trend is likely to continue.

Some traders will watch for bearish divergences during long-term bullish trends because they can signal weakness in the trend. However, it is not as reliable as a bearish divergence during a bearish trend.

Example of Rapid Rises or Falls

When MACD rises or falls rapidly (the shorter-term moving average pulls away from the longer-term moving average), it is a signal that the security is overbought or oversold and will soon return to normal levels. Traders will often combine this analysis with the RSI or other technical indicators to verify overbought or oversold conditions.

It is not uncommon for investors to use the MACD’s histogram the same way that they may use the MACD itself. Positive or negative crossovers, divergences, and rapid rises or falls can be identified on the histogram as well. Some experience is needed before deciding which is best in any given situation, because there are timing differences between signals on the MACD and its histogram.

The Bottom Line

MACD is a valuable tool of the moving-average type, best used with daily data. Just as a crossover of the nine- and day SMAs may generate a trading signal for some traders, a crossover of the MACD above or below its signal line may also generate a directional signal.

MACD is based on EMAs (more weight is placed on the most recent data), which means that it can react very quickly to changes of direction in the current price move. But that quickness can also be a two-edged sword. Crossovers of MACD lines should be noted, but confirmation should be sought from other technical signals, such as the RSI, or perhaps a few candlestick price charts. Further, because it is a lagging indicator, it argues that confirmation in subsequent price action should develop before taking the signal.